Election History

2016 Election - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    General Election Candidates:

        - Tammy Duckworth - Democrat 

        - Mark Kirk (Incumbent) - Republican 

        - Kenton McMillen - Libertarian

        - Scott Summers - Green

    General Election Voter Margins:

        - Tammy Duckworth - 54.9%

        - Mark Kirk - 39.8% 

        - Kenton McMillen - 3.2% 

        - Scott Summers - 2.1% 

    Democrat Primary Candidates and Voter Margins:

        - Tammy Duckworth - 64.4%

        - Andrea Zopp - 24%

        - Napolean Harris - 11.6%

    Storylines:

        - Kirk was seen as vulnerable for two reasons:

            - One reason was that he tended to vote for Democratic presidents, making him lose Republican support 

            - Another reason was that Illinois was targeted as an "essential seat" that Democrats needed in the Senate

         - Kirk came at Duckworth by claiming that she made a proposal increasing the number of Syrian refugees in the U.S., painting her as one who does not care about national security

Reelection - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

    - Duckworth announced that she is seeking reelection on March 4, 2021

    Primaries:

        - Currently, there are no other Democrats running for Senate 

        - There are a handful of Republicans, and the standouts are Peggy Hubbard and Bobby Piton

    General:

        - Bill Redpath - Libertarian

        - Tammy Duckworth - Democrat

        - Either Peggy Hubbard or Bobby Piton - Republican 

    Prediction:

        - It is safe to say that Duckworth is going to be elected for a second term. This is because there are no strong Republicans in the running to become one of Illinois' Senators. This is because there are no funds for a Republican to run for office. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) says that there are better ways to spend money, especially because five GOP Senators are not seeking reelection. 

        - While Republicans are struggling to get funds, Duckworth has $5.7 million devoted to her campaign. 

        - Duckworth also has a 52% approval rating and a 27% disapproval rating. 

            - This could be because she is an ideal Democratic candidate due to her voting the same as Biden 95% of the time. Or because she voted for Biden in the 2020 election. 

Sources - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- https://ballotpedia.org/Tammy_Duckworth

- https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2016/10/26/race-for-the-senate-2016-illinois/

- https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/chicago-politics/sen-tammy-duckworth-announces-reelection-campaign/2458241/

- https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Illinois,_2022

- https://chicago.suntimes.com/columnists/2022/1/16/22887276/republicans-did-not-recruit-a-senate-candidate-to-run-against-sen-tammy-duckworth

- https://morningconsult.com/2017/04/11/freshman-senators-less-popular-predecessors/

- https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-congress-votes/tammy-duckworth/